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OIL: Crude Lower with Focus on China and the Middle East

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Crude prices are trading below previous close levels following Saturday’s disappointing China MOF fiscal announcement, while the situation in the Middle East isn’t deteriorating further. 

  • Recent fiscal announcements from China have been sparse on details, including the size of the stimulus, adding to the uncertainty of the impact of actual oil demand.
  • Israel is yet to retaliate for Iran’s October 1 missile barrage. The US thinks that Israel looks likely to target military and energy sites in Iran, according to an NBC report. The timing of the response remains unknown. Iran has said that it will hit back forcefully.
  • Iraq cut production 260kb/d to 3.94mb/d in September taking output below its OPEC+ quota, Mohammed Al-Najjar at SOMO said cited by Bloomberg. The OPEC JMMC last week emphasized the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation after previous overproduction by Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks are holding steady in early trading after gasoline cracks rallied last week amid improved US demand although diesel remains rangebound.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 1.2% at 78.11$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 1.2% at 74.64$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 unchanged at 0.44$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.35$/bbl at 3.26$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 14.77$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 22.61$/bbl
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Crude prices are trading below previous close levels following Saturday’s disappointing China MOF fiscal announcement, while the situation in the Middle East isn’t deteriorating further. 

  • Recent fiscal announcements from China have been sparse on details, including the size of the stimulus, adding to the uncertainty of the impact of actual oil demand.
  • Israel is yet to retaliate for Iran’s October 1 missile barrage. The US thinks that Israel looks likely to target military and energy sites in Iran, according to an NBC report. The timing of the response remains unknown. Iran has said that it will hit back forcefully.
  • Iraq cut production 260kb/d to 3.94mb/d in September taking output below its OPEC+ quota, Mohammed Al-Najjar at SOMO said cited by Bloomberg. The OPEC JMMC last week emphasized the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation after previous overproduction by Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks are holding steady in early trading after gasoline cracks rallied last week amid improved US demand although diesel remains rangebound.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 1.2% at 78.11$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 1.2% at 74.64$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 unchanged at 0.44$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.35$/bbl at 3.26$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 14.77$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 22.61$/bbl