OIL: Crude Steady After Recovery Yesterday Ahead of US Payrolls Data

Crude markets have found support since mid week amid optimism of US Fed rate cuts in September ahead of US May payroll data out later and with a readjustment following the sharp fall in reaction to OPEC+’s output plan announced June 2.

• Since the meeting, OPEC members have reassured markets that they will alter their plan to begin a reduction in output cuts from October if it looks like there will be excess supply.
• OPEC+ hasn’t changed its policy to pursue a greater oil market share and still prioritizes stability, said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.
• Russia will gradually compensate for excess production beyond its OPEC+ quota and will be confirmed within a week, according to Bloomberg citing Tass and Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak.
  • Brent AUG 24 up 0% at 79.88$/bbl
  • WTI JUL 24 up 0.1% at 75.59$/bbl
  • Gasoil JUN 24 up 0.6% at 722.5$/mt
  • Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 unchanged at 0.37$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 3.71$/bbl
• The US May payrolls due for release later will be closely watched for any impact of future Fed expectations. Payrolls are forecast to rise by 180k with the unemployment rate stable at 3.9%. The FOMC meets on June 12.
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads have seen some support this week after the trend lower during the second half of May. The US diesel crack fell to the lowest since November 2021 at $22.03/bbl on June 3 as demand continues to disappoint.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 25.34$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 23.45$/bbl