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OIL: Crude Steady Amid Stronger US Dollar and Weaker Demand in China

OIL

Brent crude is relatively unchanged after drifting down from a high of $86.35/bbl on Jul 12 with geopolitical risks weighed against a stronger US dollar and concern for weaker demand in China.

  • Stronger USD sentiment after the Trump assassination attempt from the weekend and increased odds of a Trump Presidency is helping to limiting oil market gains.
  • Data showed weaker than expected China activity and Q2 GDP figures while IP growth remains more of a positive, against a softer consumer backdrop. China's crude oil imports fell 2.3% in H1 2024 to 11.05mbpd and refinery throughput fell 3.7% y/y in June to the lowest this year to 14.19mbpd, customs data showed.
  • Gaza ceasefire talks halted on Saturday after three days, although a Hamas official said it had not withdrawn from discussions.
  • Iraq's oil ministry said the country will will compensate for any overproduction from OPEC+ targets since the beginning of 2024 until the end of September 2025.
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spread are softer with downside pressure from limited demand and healthier stock levels.
    • Brent SEP 24 down 0.1% at 84.94$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 24 down 0% at 82.2$/bbl
    • Brent SEP 24-OCT 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.94$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.04$/bbl at 4.9$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.5$/bbl at 22.75$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.4$/bbl at 22.69$/bbl

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