OIL: EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Expected to Draw for a Seventh Week

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30ET (15:30BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by 0.86mbbls, US gasoline to draw by 1.63mbbl and distillates to draw 0.08mbbl for the week ending Aug 9, according to a Bloomberg survey. US crude inventories last week fell for a sixth week with an increase in refinery runs offsetting production at another record high of 13.4mb/d.  USGC exports are expected to rise from H2 Sept. and the decline in US crude inventories could reverse on refinery maintenance and after peak summer demand, according to Bloomberg.
• Refinery utilisation is holding just above 90% although is expected to fall by 0.15% this week amid plans for some US refiners to trim processing rates in Q3. Offline capacity at US refiners is expected to fall to 662kb/d in the week, according to IIR cited by Reuters and could fall to 308kb/d next week.
• Gasoline stocks unexpectedly rose last week driven largely by a drop in four week implied demand fell as is largely expected following a seasonal peak in July. EIA revised gasoline demand higher for May but the overall outlook for the fuel market remains challenging in 2024, according to Kpler. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand down 3.8% in the week to Aug. 10 to 8.94mb/d. Demand fell 6.9% in PADD1 likely due partially to Tropical Storm Debby causing mass flooding. 
• Distillates last week also saw a drop in implied demand and higher production to help offset higher exports. Four week average implied demand is now below the previous five year average with a typical seasonal rise after July.
• The API data yesterday showed a crude draw of 5.2mbbl, a Cushing draw of 2.23mbbl, gasoline draw of 3.69mbbl and distillates build of 0.61mbbl.