Oil End of Day: Crude Markets Extend Recent Recovery

Oil has extended gains on Monday after its biggest weekly gain since early April last week, supported on technical buying and demand outlook optimism.

• Brent AUG 24 up 1.6% at 83.92$/bbl
• WTI JUL 24 up 1.9% at 79.95$/bbl
• Gasoil JUL 24 up 0.9% at 768.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.03$/bbl at -4.55$/bbl
• Crude prices broke through their 200-day moving average as outlooks expected crude balances to tighten and the summer driving season ticks higher.
• Crude futures were helped higher last week by short-covering as bearish wagers fell.
• An OPEC+ PR mission downplaying potential cut unwinding also added support after it had spurred the recent sell off.
• Federal Reserve optimism remains sluggish with interest rates likely to hold steady and plans for just one rate cut in 2024.
• "The outlook for strong fuel demand into the coming quarter and Saudi reassurance about the October hike being subject to prevailing conditions and added focus on quota breakers to bring production down and into line all seems to be supporting," according to Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.
• The National Hurricane Center is watching two weather fronts in the Atlantic this week.
• Venezuelan crude oil exports held steady in May following the expiration of sanction waivers according to TankerTrackers.
• China's oil refinery output in May was down 1.8% y/y to its lowest in 2024 at 60.52m tons (14.25mbpd), according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics cited by Reuters.
• US officials including Amos Hochstein were in Israel Monday to try and negotiate a the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah which risk creating further spillover in the region.