Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rises

Crude has continued to trade higher on the day, holding most of its gains and reversing some losses over the previous week. Prices have been supported by a more positive demand outlook from the OPEC MOMR released earlier today, raiding the 2023 oil demand growth forecast by 100k b/d to 2.5mbpd. A potential crack-down on those violating the G7 price cap on Russian oil also added upside.

• WTI DEC 23 up 1.3% at 78.16$/bbl
• WTI-Brent down -0.01$/bbl at -4.32$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23-JAN 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.03$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.03$/bbl at 0.19$/bbl
• OPEC has raised its 2023 oil demand growth forecast by 100kbpd to 2.5mbpd, stating that the outlook is positive despite exaggerated negative sentiment according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
• The US Treasury Department appears to be pushing harder on sanctions against Russian oil again. It has sent notices to 30 ship management companies requesting information about around 100 vessels that may be in breach of the $60/bbl price cap sanctions according to a Reuters source who has seen the document.
• Production at US shale plays in December is forecast to fall by just 1k b/d in December to 9.653m b/d, according to the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report.
• The IEA report is due tomorrow and two weeks’ worth of US inventory data are due on Wednesday.
• Norway’s Johan Sverdrup crude may be losing its position as the replacement crude of choice for lost Urals barrels, according to Platts
• Goldman Sachs has cut its Brent forecast for 2024 to 92$/bbl from 98$/bbl due to stronger supply but expects demand growth to remain robust at 1.6mbpd in 2024 according to Bloomberg.
• Iraq’s oil minister Abdel-Ghani and other senior officials arrived in Kurdistan on Sunday to reach an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government and foreign oil companies operating in the Kurdish region to resume oil production from northern fields according to Reuters.
• Crude floating storage stationery for at least seven days fell 26% w/w to 58.17mn bbls as of November 10 according to Vortexa.
• Crude oil production from 19 OPEC+ quota bound countries in October rose by 70kbpd to 36.27mbpd according to Argus estimates.
• Russian Urals prices are falling back towards the G7 price cap of $60/bbl which would allow western insurers and ships to carry Russian barrels.
• Nigeria’s NNPC said Sunday it has settled an industrial dispute between the country's two main oil unions and TotalEnergies, restoring oil production of 275,000 bpd in the country
• Russia’s oil inventories fell to their lowest level in nine months amid strong domestic and export demand for oil, according to Bloomberg.
• Turkey’s imports of Russian Urals crude have risen to 800,000t during 1-15 November, up by 200,000t from the same period in October and on track for record highs, LSEG data showed.
• Around 50% of the 44m bbl of Nigeria crude cargoes for December remain available, although the pace of sales appears to be accelerating, according to Bloomberg.