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OIL: Goldman Sachs Cut Brent Forecast to $77/bbl Amid OPEC Output Rise

OIL

Goldman Sachs cut its average 2025 Brent crude forecast by $5/bbl to $77/bbl with unexpected increases in oil inventories and slow China demand.

  • The expected range for Brent in 2025 is $70-85/bbl with OPEC still expected to raise production in Q4.
  • The market is “potentially shifting from an equilibrium where OPEC supports spot balances and reduces volatility, to a more long-run equilibrium focused on strategically disciplining non-OPEC supply and supporting cohesion.”
  • Northern hemisphere OECD commercial stockpiles have moved sideways over the summer counter to expectations for draws.
  • US crude supply is beating expectations on efficiency gains, while demand growth in China has slowed on road-fuel switching and petrochemical demand weakness.
  • India demand, lower interest rates and a normalization in valuation should limit downward price pressure.
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