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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Recovers After Previous Plummet

OIL
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Brent front month has recovered ground since falling to a low of $68.68/bbl. The bearish theme is driven by market concerns for a surplus after downward revisions to OPEC’s global demand growth forecasts and soft China imports.

  • Brent NOV 24 up 2.1% at 70.62$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 24 up 2.3% at 67.23$/bbl
  • OPEC yesterday revised oil demand growth forecasts very slightly lower for this year and next but the forecast for 2024 remains well above other market expectations at 2.03mb/d.
  • The EIA, however, raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2024 to 103.08m b/d. EIA expects Brent to return to above $80/bbl in Q4 and average around $84/bbl in 2025.
  • Hurricane Francine is due to make landfall today in Louisiana and may impact eight refining facilities along the coast. Energy companies have shut-in about 24% of the Gulf’s production at 412kbpd and evacuated staff from 130 production platforms.
  • API weekly oil stock data from late yesterday according to Bloomberg: Crude -2.79mbbl, Cushing -2.6mbbl.
  • Trafigura said it could switch more of its crude oil tankers to carry clean products if sluggish market conditions persist according to a Bloomberg interview.
  • ARA crude stocks fell 1.2mn bbls in the week ended Sep.6 to 53.1mn bbls according to Genscape.
  • The deal by Hungary’s MOL to transport Russian crude through the Druzhba pipeline via Belarus and Ukraine is in compliance with EU rules MOL's executive chairman Zsolt Hernadi said to local news outlets on Wednesday.
  • Johan Sverdrup oil output is expected to start declining in early 2025 according to Equinor - in line with prior communications by the company.
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Brent front month has recovered ground since falling to a low of $68.68/bbl. The bearish theme is driven by market concerns for a surplus after downward revisions to OPEC’s global demand growth forecasts and soft China imports.

  • Brent NOV 24 up 2.1% at 70.62$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 24 up 2.3% at 67.23$/bbl
  • OPEC yesterday revised oil demand growth forecasts very slightly lower for this year and next but the forecast for 2024 remains well above other market expectations at 2.03mb/d.
  • The EIA, however, raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2024 to 103.08m b/d. EIA expects Brent to return to above $80/bbl in Q4 and average around $84/bbl in 2025.
  • Hurricane Francine is due to make landfall today in Louisiana and may impact eight refining facilities along the coast. Energy companies have shut-in about 24% of the Gulf’s production at 412kbpd and evacuated staff from 130 production platforms.
  • API weekly oil stock data from late yesterday according to Bloomberg: Crude -2.79mbbl, Cushing -2.6mbbl.
  • Trafigura said it could switch more of its crude oil tankers to carry clean products if sluggish market conditions persist according to a Bloomberg interview.
  • ARA crude stocks fell 1.2mn bbls in the week ended Sep.6 to 53.1mn bbls according to Genscape.
  • The deal by Hungary’s MOL to transport Russian crude through the Druzhba pipeline via Belarus and Ukraine is in compliance with EU rules MOL's executive chairman Zsolt Hernadi said to local news outlets on Wednesday.
  • Johan Sverdrup oil output is expected to start declining in early 2025 according to Equinor - in line with prior communications by the company.