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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Stabilising After Rally

OIL

Crude markets are ticking down today, adjusting after a sharp rally yesterday. Upside pressure is driven by supply risk from Libya, tensions between Iran and Israel, and low US inventories. Fed cut optimism is also supportive and may offset some of the previous global demand growth concern.

  • Brent OCT 24 down 0.4% at 81.07$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 24 down 0.5% at 77.02$/bbl
  • Libya’s eastern government announced on Monday it would shut down the country’s crude output and exports, prompting a surge in crude prices.
  • Waha Oil Co., which supplies Es Sider said on Monday it will start cutting shipments gradually.
  • Two oilfields in southeast Libya shut down, another oilfield reduced production to lowest capacity, according to Reuters.
  • A total of 676mbbls of open October Brent options positions are currently due to expire against the futures close price today. Open interest is 474k call contracts and 202k for puts.
  • Brent crude call option traded volumes surged on Aug 26 ahead of the options expiry today driven by October and November call spreads.
  • North Sea Forties output will edge down to 226.4kb/d in December from 228.1kb/d in November, according to pipeline operator Ineos.
  • Goldman Sachs cut its average 2025 Brent crude forecast by $5/bbl to $77/bbl with unexpected increases in oil inventories and slow China demand.
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