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OIL: Oil Balance Switch to“Heavy Surplus” in 2025: Macquarie

OIL
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The global oil market is expected to switch to a “heavy surplus” in 2025 due to increased non-OPEC supplies and sluggish demand, according to Macquarie Group cited by Bloomberg.

  • Tightness in the current quarter is easing and a heavy oversupply is expected across the next five quarters and limiting the need for OPEC+ to ease output curbs.
  • Saudi Arabia is unlikely to pursue a renewed “price war” with non-OPEC producers.
  • Brent is forecast at $79/bbl in Q3 2024, $73/bbl in Q4, $70/bbl in Q1 2025, $64/bbl in Q2, $69 in Q3, and $72/bbl in Q4.
  • Modelled prices could fall with “potential for something that might feel like a ‘price war’ (crude in the low-$50s), even without Saudi Arabia seeking it out.”
  • Some scenarios suggest “upside potential”, including supply risks and the US presidential election.
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The global oil market is expected to switch to a “heavy surplus” in 2025 due to increased non-OPEC supplies and sluggish demand, according to Macquarie Group cited by Bloomberg.

  • Tightness in the current quarter is easing and a heavy oversupply is expected across the next five quarters and limiting the need for OPEC+ to ease output curbs.
  • Saudi Arabia is unlikely to pursue a renewed “price war” with non-OPEC producers.
  • Brent is forecast at $79/bbl in Q3 2024, $73/bbl in Q4, $70/bbl in Q1 2025, $64/bbl in Q2, $69 in Q3, and $72/bbl in Q4.
  • Modelled prices could fall with “potential for something that might feel like a ‘price war’ (crude in the low-$50s), even without Saudi Arabia seeking it out.”
  • Some scenarios suggest “upside potential”, including supply risks and the US presidential election.