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OIL: Oil End of Day: Geopolitical Risk Premium Breaks Brent Above $80/bbl

OIL
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Brent broke $80/bbl on Monday as the geopolitical risk premium surrounding an expected Israeli response to last weeks Iranian rocket attack grew further. 

  • Brent DEC 24 up 3.7% at 80.93$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 up 3.7% at 77.15$/bbl
  • Brent had its highest weekly gain since January 2023 last week because of the tensions.
  • Rockets fired by Iran-backed Hezbollah hit Israel's third-largest city, Haifa, early on Monday. A surface-to-surface missile from Yemen at central Israel on Monday was intercepted, the Israeli military said.
  • A potential Israeli response to Iranian targets remains unclear while oil flows remain unimpacted.
  • Hedge funds and money managers had amassed record bearish bets in oil futures through mid-September, the closing of which is likely driving prices higher.
  • Goldman said in a note oil could breach into the $90’s if Iranian oil is disrupted by Israel.
  • Hurricane Milton supply disruptions remain limited with only Chevron shutting down a platform in preventative measures in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Options markets for oil continue to retain their bias toward bullish calls.
  • Libya’s oil production is back above 1mbpd for the first time in 2 months after the recent resolution to the central banker disagreement Bloomberg sources said.
  • Rosneft’s 240,000 bpd Tuapse refinery in Russia halted processing from October 1 due to low margins, sources told Reuters.
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Brent broke $80/bbl on Monday as the geopolitical risk premium surrounding an expected Israeli response to last weeks Iranian rocket attack grew further. 

  • Brent DEC 24 up 3.7% at 80.93$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 up 3.7% at 77.15$/bbl
  • Brent had its highest weekly gain since January 2023 last week because of the tensions.
  • Rockets fired by Iran-backed Hezbollah hit Israel's third-largest city, Haifa, early on Monday. A surface-to-surface missile from Yemen at central Israel on Monday was intercepted, the Israeli military said.
  • A potential Israeli response to Iranian targets remains unclear while oil flows remain unimpacted.
  • Hedge funds and money managers had amassed record bearish bets in oil futures through mid-September, the closing of which is likely driving prices higher.
  • Goldman said in a note oil could breach into the $90’s if Iranian oil is disrupted by Israel.
  • Hurricane Milton supply disruptions remain limited with only Chevron shutting down a platform in preventative measures in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Options markets for oil continue to retain their bias toward bullish calls.
  • Libya’s oil production is back above 1mbpd for the first time in 2 months after the recent resolution to the central banker disagreement Bloomberg sources said.
  • Rosneft’s 240,000 bpd Tuapse refinery in Russia halted processing from October 1 due to low margins, sources told Reuters.