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OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Trades Higher

OIL

Crude markets are closing today trading higher. Support from near term supply disruptions in Libya and Kazakhstan is outweighing concerns over global demand for oil, especially from China.

  • WTI OCT 24 up 1.6% at 71.18$/bbl
  • US crude oil inventories are expected to have fallen by 1.0m bbl in the week to Sep. 13, according to a WSJ survey of ten analysts and traders.
  • US crude oil inventories are expected to have risen by 0.3m bbl in the week to Sep. 13, Macquarie said in a note.
  • More than 12% of crude production and 16% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were offline following Hurricane Francine, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said on Monday.
  • Libyan crude exports are down sharply in September at ~400kbd vs an August pace ~1mn bpd according to Vortexa. (See chart for context)
  • The restart of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which has been shut since March 2023, is held up by disagreements over how much to pay international oil companies operating in the northern region, according to Iraq’s prime minister cited by Bloomberg.
  • Kazakhstan has the chance to boost supplies to Germany’s, Kazakh President Tokayev said.
  • The bearish oil positioning of commodity trading advisers is near maximum levels so could ease some recent selling pressure for now, according to Energy Aspects Quant Analytics.
  • The oil markets have over anticipated supply side growth next year according to Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen via Bloomberg TV.
  • Goldman Sachs analysts see Brent recovering to $77/bbl in 4Q in its base case.
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Crude markets are closing today trading higher. Support from near term supply disruptions in Libya and Kazakhstan is outweighing concerns over global demand for oil, especially from China.

  • WTI OCT 24 up 1.6% at 71.18$/bbl
  • US crude oil inventories are expected to have fallen by 1.0m bbl in the week to Sep. 13, according to a WSJ survey of ten analysts and traders.
  • US crude oil inventories are expected to have risen by 0.3m bbl in the week to Sep. 13, Macquarie said in a note.
  • More than 12% of crude production and 16% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were offline following Hurricane Francine, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said on Monday.
  • Libyan crude exports are down sharply in September at ~400kbd vs an August pace ~1mn bpd according to Vortexa. (See chart for context)
  • The restart of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which has been shut since March 2023, is held up by disagreements over how much to pay international oil companies operating in the northern region, according to Iraq’s prime minister cited by Bloomberg.
  • Kazakhstan has the chance to boost supplies to Germany’s, Kazakh President Tokayev said.
  • The bearish oil positioning of commodity trading advisers is near maximum levels so could ease some recent selling pressure for now, according to Energy Aspects Quant Analytics.
  • The oil markets have over anticipated supply side growth next year according to Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen via Bloomberg TV.
  • Goldman Sachs analysts see Brent recovering to $77/bbl in 4Q in its base case.