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OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Trades Lower

OIL
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WTI traded lower today but rose around 1.5% on the week as the market weighs the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East and awaits Israel’s retaliation against Iran.

  • WTI NOV 24 down 0.5% at 75.5$/bbl
  • The total US oil rig count was up 2 on the week to 481 rigs. This is down 20 rigs, or 4.0% on the year.
  • Crude call options volatilities have surged higher again taking the skew over puts to the highest since April 2022 as the market looks to cover the upside risk of supply disruption from potential strikes on Iran’s oil facilities.
  • OPEC+ crude production fell 0.5m b/d on the month in September to 40.23m b/d, a Platts survey showed.
  • A potential strike by Israel on Iran’s oil infrastructure could result in a sustained 1mb/d of disruption in supplies and a price rally of at least $15/bbl, Barclays said.
  • Iranian supply to China is unlikely but any missing barrels would be replaced by the next available discounted supply, Vortexa said.
  • With the standoff in Libya now resolved, output could come roaring back to surpass previous levels, Platts said.
  • North Dakota oil production is estimated to be down nearly 50k to 80kb/d on Oct. 11 due to the ongoing wildfires in the state.
  • The differential for WCS at Hardisty, Alberta, rose to its strongest level in over 15 months, Platts said.
  • An excess of supertankers in the Middle East compared with crude cargoes for the next 30 days shrank to 20%.
  • Continuing unrest in the Red Sea led to a sharp decline in oil-related shipments in 2024, according to the EIA, cited by OPIS.
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WTI traded lower today but rose around 1.5% on the week as the market weighs the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East and awaits Israel’s retaliation against Iran.

  • WTI NOV 24 down 0.5% at 75.5$/bbl
  • The total US oil rig count was up 2 on the week to 481 rigs. This is down 20 rigs, or 4.0% on the year.
  • Crude call options volatilities have surged higher again taking the skew over puts to the highest since April 2022 as the market looks to cover the upside risk of supply disruption from potential strikes on Iran’s oil facilities.
  • OPEC+ crude production fell 0.5m b/d on the month in September to 40.23m b/d, a Platts survey showed.
  • A potential strike by Israel on Iran’s oil infrastructure could result in a sustained 1mb/d of disruption in supplies and a price rally of at least $15/bbl, Barclays said.
  • Iranian supply to China is unlikely but any missing barrels would be replaced by the next available discounted supply, Vortexa said.
  • With the standoff in Libya now resolved, output could come roaring back to surpass previous levels, Platts said.
  • North Dakota oil production is estimated to be down nearly 50k to 80kb/d on Oct. 11 due to the ongoing wildfires in the state.
  • The differential for WCS at Hardisty, Alberta, rose to its strongest level in over 15 months, Platts said.
  • An excess of supertankers in the Middle East compared with crude cargoes for the next 30 days shrank to 20%.
  • Continuing unrest in the Red Sea led to a sharp decline in oil-related shipments in 2024, according to the EIA, cited by OPIS.