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OIL: Oil Market at Europe Close: EIA Build Reverses Some Oil Gains

OIL

Crude markets have reversed some of the earlier gains after an unexpected build in US crude stocks according to the latest EIA report. Iranian strikes saw oil gain further early in the session but a lack of news on a direct retaliation have failed to keep prices supported.

  • Brent DEC 24 up 0.9% at 74.21$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 up 1% at 70.52$/bbl
  • Numerous analysts have also cited the huge spare OPEC+ capacity sitting on the sidelines were any Iranian barrels to be materially impacted. All prior Middle East geopolitical risk premiums over the last year have priced off because of no impact on physical barrels.
  • Amichai Stein at KAN posts on X: "After Israel security cabinet meet: Israel is expected to respond 'harsh' against Iran, with the possibility of targeting strategic sites in Iran".
  • The JMMC will continue to monitor member adherence to the agreed production adjustments after reviewing the July and August production data, an OPEC press release said Wednesday.
  • Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russian confirmed full conformity and compensation according to September quotas. Workshops with the countries discussed September production details and revised compensation plans that include August overproduction.
  • The Saudi oil minister has said oil prices could fall as low as $50/bbl if OPEC+ members do not stick to agreed production limits the WSJ reported on Wednesday, citing delegates within the group.
  • Russia’s seaborne crude shipments rebounded 850kb/d last week due to the resumption of flows out of eastern facing Kozmino port and due to higher Primorsk flows, according to Bloomberg vessel tracking.
  • Russia will increase oil exports via its western ports to 2.2mbpd in October, slightly up from September according to Reuters sources.
  • ARA crude storage fell 3.1% or 1.7mbbls in the week ended Sept. 27 to 54.0mbbls according to Genscape.
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Crude markets have reversed some of the earlier gains after an unexpected build in US crude stocks according to the latest EIA report. Iranian strikes saw oil gain further early in the session but a lack of news on a direct retaliation have failed to keep prices supported.

  • Brent DEC 24 up 0.9% at 74.21$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 up 1% at 70.52$/bbl
  • Numerous analysts have also cited the huge spare OPEC+ capacity sitting on the sidelines were any Iranian barrels to be materially impacted. All prior Middle East geopolitical risk premiums over the last year have priced off because of no impact on physical barrels.
  • Amichai Stein at KAN posts on X: "After Israel security cabinet meet: Israel is expected to respond 'harsh' against Iran, with the possibility of targeting strategic sites in Iran".
  • The JMMC will continue to monitor member adherence to the agreed production adjustments after reviewing the July and August production data, an OPEC press release said Wednesday.
  • Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russian confirmed full conformity and compensation according to September quotas. Workshops with the countries discussed September production details and revised compensation plans that include August overproduction.
  • The Saudi oil minister has said oil prices could fall as low as $50/bbl if OPEC+ members do not stick to agreed production limits the WSJ reported on Wednesday, citing delegates within the group.
  • Russia’s seaborne crude shipments rebounded 850kb/d last week due to the resumption of flows out of eastern facing Kozmino port and due to higher Primorsk flows, according to Bloomberg vessel tracking.
  • Russia will increase oil exports via its western ports to 2.2mbpd in October, slightly up from September according to Reuters sources.
  • ARA crude storage fell 3.1% or 1.7mbbls in the week ended Sept. 27 to 54.0mbbls according to Genscape.