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OIL: Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Finds Gains

OIL
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Crude markets have managed to find support today. Support from near term supply disruptions in Libya and Kazakhstan is outweighing concerns over global demand for oil, especially from China.

  • Brent NOV 24 up 1% at 73.49$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 24 up 1.5% at 71.12$/bbl
  • The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow.
  • More than 12% of crude production and 16% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were offline following Hurricane Francine, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said on Monday.
  • Libyan crude exports are down sharply in September at ~400kbd vs an August pace ~1mn bpd according to Vortexa. (See chart for context)
  • The restart of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which has been shut since March 2023, is held up by disagreements over how much to pay international oil companies operating in the northern region, according to Iraq’s prime minister cited by Bloomberg.
  • Kazakhstan has the chance to boost supplies to Germany’s market as it positions itself as a reliable supplier of energy, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said, cited by Interfax.
  • The bearish oil positioning of commodity trading advisers is near maximum levels so could ease some recent selling pressure for now, according to Energy Aspects Quant Analytics cited by Bloomberg.
  • The oil markets have over anticipated supply side growth next year according to Energy Aspects director Amrita Sen in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
  • Goldman Sachs analysts see Brent recovering to $77/bbl in 4Q in its base case “as excessively pessimistic demand concerns abate, positioning and valuation recover, and OECD inventories remain somewhat below normal.”
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Crude markets have managed to find support today. Support from near term supply disruptions in Libya and Kazakhstan is outweighing concerns over global demand for oil, especially from China.

  • Brent NOV 24 up 1% at 73.49$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 24 up 1.5% at 71.12$/bbl
  • The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow.
  • More than 12% of crude production and 16% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were offline following Hurricane Francine, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said on Monday.
  • Libyan crude exports are down sharply in September at ~400kbd vs an August pace ~1mn bpd according to Vortexa. (See chart for context)
  • The restart of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which has been shut since March 2023, is held up by disagreements over how much to pay international oil companies operating in the northern region, according to Iraq’s prime minister cited by Bloomberg.
  • Kazakhstan has the chance to boost supplies to Germany’s market as it positions itself as a reliable supplier of energy, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said, cited by Interfax.
  • The bearish oil positioning of commodity trading advisers is near maximum levels so could ease some recent selling pressure for now, according to Energy Aspects Quant Analytics cited by Bloomberg.
  • The oil markets have over anticipated supply side growth next year according to Energy Aspects director Amrita Sen in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
  • Goldman Sachs analysts see Brent recovering to $77/bbl in 4Q in its base case “as excessively pessimistic demand concerns abate, positioning and valuation recover, and OECD inventories remain somewhat below normal.”