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Oil Products Summary at European Close: Gasoline Cracks Tick Up

OIL PRODUCTS

Gasoline cracks are continuing their gradual recovery of recent weeks, ticking up on the day. Despite this, demand remains weak, while stocks have risen above normal. Refiners continue yielding strong supplies with margins supported by robust diesel cracks.

  • US gasoline crack up 1$/bbl at 12.59$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 41.86$/bbl
  • Weaker demand expectations in Europe and Asia will skew Gasoil margin risks to the downside according to FGE. Gasoil/diesel demand in Europe has been revised down by 180k b/d compared with the outlook last month for the Sep-Dec period due to weak manufacturing and demand data. Asian gasoil consumption is expected to see a seasonal decrease led by China falling 180k b/d on the month in Dec and by a further 320k b/d in Jan.
  • European gasoline exports rose 1% on the month in October to 4.13m t but down 18% compared from October last year according to Vortexa data via Argus. An increase in shipments to Nigeria offset lower demand from the US.
  • Chinese refinery utilisation rates at teapots in the refining hub of Shandong province are averaging about 57% in early November - down from about 65% in early October, according to China-based consultancy Longzhong.
  • Russia exported around 1.01m b/d of diesel from the Baltic Port of Primorsk in October, equivalent to around 244k b/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 5.8m tons per year (115k b/d) Litvinov refinery in the Czech Republic plans a turnaround in April to allow for a move away from Russian crude according to Bloomberg.
  • Medium Range Tanker rates from Northwest Europe face additional pressure this winter, amid high US gasoline stocks and softening demand from WAF, according to Kpler.
  • Passenger jet fuel demand in the seven days to Nov. 13 is set to fall by 3.8% on the week to 6.1m b/d, reversing last week’s moderate rise, according to BNEF.
  • Global air passenger capacity saw another weekly fall in the week starting Nov. 6, down 3% on the week to 103.4m seats, according to OAG.
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