Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Extends Recovery

Crude has continued its recovery during the day after losing ground throughout the week due to global demand concerns. Brent remains around 4.3% below its levels at the start of the week and down around 5.8% on the month.

• Brent JAN 24 up 1.5% at 81.22$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 up 1.6% at 76.95$/bbl
• The ICE and Nymex commitments of traders reports are due for release after the close today at 18:30GMT and 15:30ET. Crude and ICE Gasoil managed money net long positions last week fell to the lowest since early July.
• Brent crude futures aggregate open interest has continued to fall this week following a drop after the Dec23 contract expiry. ICE Brent open interest is down to the lowest since January at 2.042m yesterday from over 2.2m at the end of October.
• The latest Baker Hughes rig count data is due for release at 13:00ET.
• OPEC+ crude oil output rose by 180kbpd month on month in October to 42.71mbpd, amid higher output from Iraq and Iran according to the latest Platts survey.
• An extension to Saudi Arabia’s 1mbpd voluntary oil production cuts is very probable, as the market would otherwise risk a very high supply surplus in the first half of next year, Commerzbank said in a note.
• One major European refiner requested a smaller than normal contractual volume of crude from Saudi Aramco for December delivery according to Bloomberg sources.
• Urals crude oil prices at Russian ports have softened and are trending towards levels set by the G7 price cap, according to Nasdaq citing Reuters’ trading sources.
• China bought an average of 1.05mbpd of Iranian oil in the first ten months of this year, Vortexa ship-tracking data showed, 60% above pre-sanction peaks in 20217, Chinese customs data showed, cited by Reuters.
• Iraq’s oil ministry confirmed its commitment and support of the OPEC+ production quotas, following reports of higher crude oil exports in October, INA reported.
• Libya aims to almost double its crude production to 2mb/d over the next 3‒5 years investing US$4 billion a year however various obstacles may hinder the plans according to Wood Mackenzie. Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) is keen to keep the oil flowing and maximise state revenues.
• Two key buyers of Canadian heavy crude are set to boost their imports of Venezuelan crudes, possible replacing Canadian crude demand, ArgusMedia said.
• India is looking to diversify its oil purchases and is possibly looking at Venezuela, as high global prices have pulled down the country's crude imports according to S&P Commodity Insights.
• Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. plans to retain more supplies of Upper Zakum crude for domestic use in the Ruwais refinery. Adnoc is considering supplying less to buyers under long-term contracts starting in 2024 according to Bloomberg sources.
• Global oil inventories have removed the builds of the previous two month and are now at their lowest since at least the start of 2017, Kpler data showed.