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OIL: Volatile Brent Weighs Iran Supply Risk

OIL

Brent crude is lower in early trading today after a rally yesterday with an increased geopolitical risk premium towards the weekend. Brent has bounced between $75.15/bbl and $81.16/bbl this week as risk of supply disruption in the Middle East is set against existing market concern for weak demand and a surplus next year.

  • Uncertainty remains over Israel's retaliation against Iran and the risk of strikes on oil facilities. The Israeli cabinet met on Thursday as it considers options. US President Biden and Gulf states continue to call for Israel not to target Iran's oil assets.
  • Libya’s National Oil Corp. says daily crude oil and condensate production has been restored to 1.217mb/d on Oct. 10 up from 1.158mb/d the previous day, according to Reuters.
  • Tomorrow is the China fiscal briefing from the MOF, with any fresh stimulus measures eyed for the China outlook.
  • Hurricane Milton which made landfall on Florida's west coast, resulted in significant gasoline panic buying in PADD 1 but destruction could dampen fuel demand with millions without power.
  • Pemex's 312,500-barrel-per-day (bpd) Deer Park oil refinery in Texas shut the 92kbpd coker and a hydrotreater after a chemical leak which killed two people.
  • Diesel cracks have held relatively rangebound this week, but gasoline cracks have rallied after improved US demand.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 1% at 78.61$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 0.9% at 75.15$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.53$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.28$/bbl at 3.73$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 14.39$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 22.72$/bbl
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Brent crude is lower in early trading today after a rally yesterday with an increased geopolitical risk premium towards the weekend. Brent has bounced between $75.15/bbl and $81.16/bbl this week as risk of supply disruption in the Middle East is set against existing market concern for weak demand and a surplus next year.

  • Uncertainty remains over Israel's retaliation against Iran and the risk of strikes on oil facilities. The Israeli cabinet met on Thursday as it considers options. US President Biden and Gulf states continue to call for Israel not to target Iran's oil assets.
  • Libya’s National Oil Corp. says daily crude oil and condensate production has been restored to 1.217mb/d on Oct. 10 up from 1.158mb/d the previous day, according to Reuters.
  • Tomorrow is the China fiscal briefing from the MOF, with any fresh stimulus measures eyed for the China outlook.
  • Hurricane Milton which made landfall on Florida's west coast, resulted in significant gasoline panic buying in PADD 1 but destruction could dampen fuel demand with millions without power.
  • Pemex's 312,500-barrel-per-day (bpd) Deer Park oil refinery in Texas shut the 92kbpd coker and a hydrotreater after a chemical leak which killed two people.
  • Diesel cracks have held relatively rangebound this week, but gasoline cracks have rallied after improved US demand.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 1% at 78.61$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 0.9% at 75.15$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.53$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.28$/bbl at 3.73$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 14.39$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 22.72$/bbl