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Oil Weakness Tips USD/CAD Toward Bull Trigger

CAD
  • USD/CAD extending gains in recent trade as the broad USD strength meets a pullback in oil-tied FX: WTI and Brent crude futures came under solid selling pressure at ~0945ET / 1445BST, before stabilising somewhat in recent trade. There were no headlines or key drivers behind oil weakness outside of background USD strength and deteriorating risk appetite, evident in the S&P 500 opening lower.
  • USD/CAD's rally narrows the gap with key resistance and the bull trigger at the 1.3695 early September high. Clearance here puts the pair at the best levels since March, and would make for a 300 pip rally off the mid-Sept lows and the failed break of the 100-dma support.
  • Oil seen as the key factor in the near-term, with some attention paid to the earlier calls from Citi, who forecast Brent falling to the low $70s next year as the market flips to a surplus.

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