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OIL: WTI Midland Replaced West Africa as Swing Supplier

OIL

WTI Midland has replaced West African oil as the swing supplier between the Atlantic Basin and Asia and the largest freely-traded grade by output and volume, according to Renaissance Energy Advisors cited by Bloomberg.

  • About 47% of last year’s flows went to Europe while 43% went to Asia.  
  • West Africa was previously the key swing supplier with a regular source of spot barrels that can be traded east or west depending on demand. Africa’s upstream sector has underperformed while Nigeria’s Dangote refinery means more barrels are processed locally and WTI Midland imports have increased.
  • WTI Midland has also effectively replaced Urals as the baseload grade for refiners in NW Europe since the ban on Russia crude while the grade is a key for pricing since the inclusion in the Dated Brent benchmark.
  • US crude exports are forecast to grow to almost 6mb/d by 2030.
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