On tap for Thursday: Aside from.....>

US DATA PREVIEW: On tap for Thursday: Aside from weekly claims, Final Demand PPI

(0.1% est) for January; Retail Sales (0.0%) for December; business inventories

for November (0.2%). 

- Morgan Stanley economists "forecast a 0.3% month-over-month gain in December

core retail sales (which we define as retail sales and food services excluding

auto dealers, gas stations and home improvement stores)." MS said a large part

of their Retail Sales forecast is "driven by the food services category (i.e.

restaurants), and so the Bloomberg definition of the control group (which

excludes restaurants in addition to the categories above), is flat according to

our model." 

- RBS NatWest economists posits the December retail sales report "may be

stronger than it looks on the surface. Overall sales are unlikely to have shown

much growth in December (NWM forecast: +0.1%), restrained by a sharp decline in

gasoline station receipts (due to lower prices)." RBS adds "even our small

expected increase would be consistent with a gain in real PCE of around 4% in Q4

(relative to the Q3 average)."