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US DATA PREVIEW: On tap for Wednesday: Non-farm productivity (p) (1.5% est) and
unit labor costs (p) (1.8% est) for Q4; trade balance for November (-$54.7B
est); $27B 10Y note auction.
- Morgan Stanley economists estimate that "productivity grew at a 1.7%Q
annualized rate in the fourth quarter. For unit labor costs, we forecast growth
of 1.6% (Q/Q annualized) after a 0.9% gain in 3Q." MS reminds the BLS's report
"will be incomplete due to the delayed 4Q GDP data."
- On trade balance, Nomura economists said "goods import and export activities
likely slowed in November based on shipping container data at major US ports.
However, the container data suggest that while goods imports rebounded sharply
in December, exports recovered only modestly. On net, a sharp widening of goods
trade gap in December could offset some of the narrowing in November. It appears
likely that net exports will continue to remain as a drag on real GDP growth