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OPEC+ Cuts Could Extends Through H2: Citigroup

OIL

The OPEC+ group is expected to maintain production cuts through the second half of this year, according to Citigroup.

  • Output cuts may start to ease if prices rise to the $90 to $100+/bbl range and would provide a “soft ceiling” for oil.
  • Saudi Arabia is seen as most keen to maintain cuts, but other members with spare capacity such as the UAE and Kuwait may want to ease production cuts sooner.
  • The market currently looks “finely balanced,” amid geopolitical risks and Red Sea shipping disruptions through to mid-year. “With this fine balance, OPEC+ can likely hold production cuts for longer without much loss of market share yet.”
  • Weaker prices going into 2H could be driven by the perception of softer geopolitical risks in recent weeks reflected in a flattening of time spreads.

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