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OPEC JTC Revised 2022 Surplus Lower

OIL

Late yesterday OPEC’s JTC corrected earlier projections of a higher surplus after revising its base-case supply assumptions due to members underproduction.

  • JTC now sees a smaller 400kbpd surplus in global oil markets this year, down from an earlier report of a 900kbpd surplus. They forecast demand to outstrip supply towards the end of the year resulting in a 300kbpd deficit in Q4 22.
  • A 300kbpd deficit is expected for 2023 down from the earlier projection of a 900kbpd surplus.
  • The committee "revised the supply assumptions... to reflect the fact that many OPEC+ countries have not reached their required production"
  • The whole group was 2.89mbpd below the target production level in July according to Argus.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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