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OPEC+ Likely to Maintain Current Policy: Platts

OIL

OPEC+ and its allies have been hoping a seasonal bump in oil demand would lead to the unwinding of its production cuts from Q4, but crude prices have been sliding even with the JMMC meeting due Aug. 1, Platts said.

  • Enthusiasm among the bloc to cut production even further remains low, with 5.8m b/d already idled since staged cuts began in Oct. 2022.
  • However, ministers are wary of releasing barrels too fast and pushing down prices further. OPEC+ faces a common dilemma of choosing between defending prices or market share.
  • Often forecasts see 2025 crude prices weakening further as more supply from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada come online. Platts sees dated brent averaging $84/b in 2024 and $79/b in 2025.
  • OPEC+’s decision making is also affected by the divergence in expectations of near-term demand, with OPEC’s forecast at 2.25m b/d, compared to 1.85m b/d in 2025.

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights

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