OPEC Revises Russian Liquid Supply and China Demand Higher

OPEC has revised up its forecast for Russian liquids supply this year for a second consecutive month.

• OPEC has also lifted its forecast for Chinese oil demand – likely one of the supportive factors for crude prices after the release of the report despite most of the other key forecasts remaining largely unchanged.
• The group expects Russia to produce 10.45mn bpd of liquids in 2023, around 70,000 bpd higher than its previous forecast. It forecasts Russian supply will remain 10.45mn bpd next year.
• Chinese oil demand growth for 2023 has been upgraded by 50,000 bpd to 970,000 bpd, driven by a 190,000 bpd revision to third-quarter demand.
• OPEC secondary sources saw another hike in Iran's crude output to 3mn bpd in August - up around 150k bpd vs July and up by around 450k bpd since the first quarter of this year.
• OPEC left its world oil demand forecast for 2023 unchanged at 2.4mn b/d as upward revisions for China, the US, and OECD offset downward revisions for elsewhere in Asia.
• Opec secondary sources saw a near 100k bpd fall in Saudi output on average in August vs July, leaving the Kingdom a touch below its informal ~9mn bpd cap - which includes its 500k bpd voluntary cut and 1mn bpd "lollipop" cut.
• OPEC's latest analysis shows that if the bloc maintains its August production level of 27.45 million bpd through the end of the year, the global oil market will be more than 3 million bpd in deficit in the 4th quarter.