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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
Bloomberg reporting that according to latest opinion polling, a tripartite alliance between opposition parties and groups would be on course to secure a majority in the Sejm (parliament) in the 15 October general election. According to data from Kantar for TVN, the three main opposition groups would win 244 seats in the 460-member chamber if its 2-4 Oct poll was reflected in the final result.
- The election remains on a knife edge, with the incumbent United Right alliance potentially having to rely on the far-right Confederation should it fall short of a majority. It remains to be seen whether the two could work together in gov't.
- It is also unclear how long a gov't involving former PM Donald Tusk's big tent Civic Coalition (KO), left-leaning The Left (L), and centre-right Third Way (TD) could hold together. Their main joint policy position is the ouster of the incumbent gov't, and without that uniting force and post-election coalition could prove shaky.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling, Seat Projections for United Right and Opposition Parties (KO+L+TD) and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: IBRiS, United Surveys, IPSOS, Estymator, IBSP, Kantar, MNI. Dashed line indicates 231 seats required for majority.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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