Outlets for New Global LNG Supplies Uncertain: IEA’s Molnar

With global LNG supply forecast to expand by 50%, or 250 bcm, by 2030, questions remain as to whether these additional volumes can find outlets, the IEA’s Greg Molnar said via a LinkedIn post.

• With European gas demand entering structural decline and Japan shifting back to nuclear energy, the focus will be on China, India, and fast-growing Asian markets.
• All new LNG supply by 2030 accounts for less than 10% of Asia’s current coal consumption, offering huge scope for coal-to-gas switching.
• The ability of new LNG cargoes to find outlets will depend on three factors, Molnar said.
• These are: the pace of renewable expansion, investment in LNG import infrastructure, and the prospects from constructing the proposed Russia-China gas pipeline.
• The proposed Russia-China 50 bcm/y power of Siberia-2 pipeline would radically alter China’s LNG demand. However, negotiations have been ongoing for 15 years without tangible progress.