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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Find Support

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this is allowing the recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch lies at 133.39, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 136.45, 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont). First resistance is 135.17, the Aug 14 high.
  • Gilt futures traded lower again, Thursday but the contract is recovering today. This week’s move lower has resulted in a breach of support at 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break lower highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.37, a 1.236 projection of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing. The trend condition remains up and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A stronger reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective phase. First key resistance to monitor is 99.85, the Aug 22 high. Initial resistance is at 99.21, the Aug 2 high.
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