Outside of today's central bank decision,....>

POLAND: Outside of today's central bank decision, there's plenty of focus on

tomorrow's ruling from the European Court of Justice on whether Poland's banks

sold CHF mortgages illegally for a number of years. Should the ECJ side with

those mortgage buyers, Polish banks could expect hefty penalties and a material

dent to profitability. This has been partially priced in, with the Polish

banking index down materially from the highs this year.

-Should the ruling go against Polish banks, the ECJ could force loan conversions

from CHF to PLN at rates below current values while retaining interest payments

linked to CHF money market rates and not the more punitive PLN rates. Reports

suggest the fines could total as much as PLN 60bln (EUR 14bln) which, in a worst

case scenario, analysts see EUR/PLN being driven back to levels not seen since

2016. That year, EUR/PLN topped out at 4.5391.

-Timing of the ECJ's decision is unclear, but local sources suggest the

judgement could be at around 0830BST/0930CET. The earlier opinion issued in May

went against Polish banks, so markets expect a similar result Thursday, with the

severity of the punishment the primary focus.