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Overreacting to Lower Than Expected Weekly Jobless Data

US TSYS
  • Treasuries reversed early gains/gapped lower after weekly jobless claims came out lower than anticipated, continuing claims mildly higher -- tempered by down-revision of prior.
  • A surprisingly large hawkish reaction to weekly jobless claims data that show little sign of an improvement in underlying terms, but do at least rule out a very latest deterioration for the labor market. Initial jobless claims were lower than expected in the week to Aug 3, at a seasonally adjusted 233k (cons 240k) as they retreated from a slightly upward revised 250k (initial 249k).
  • Treasury futures remain near lows after Wholesale Trade Sales comes out lower than expected, Inventories in-line. Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures trade -8 at 112-20.5, vs. 112-16.5 low -- through technical support at 112-21 (Low Aug 2). Next support level well below at 111-30 (20D EMA). 10Y yield back over 4.0% to 4.0108% high. Eye on technical support at 112-21 Low Aug 2.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end off early morning levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -40.5bp (-44.8bp), Nov'24 cumulative -71.5bp (-77.6bp), Dec'24 -103.2bp (-109.3bp).
  • Look ahead: No scheduled data, Fed speak or Tsy supply Friday. Next week sees PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Home sales data and UofM inflation expectations.
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