CORRECTED-MNI: Fed's Hammack-Near Or At Time To Slow Rate Cuts

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Sees Rates Fair Bit Lower In A Year

CANADA JOBLESS RATE +6.8% VS FORECAST +6.6%, PRIOR +6.5%

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 6

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY288.1 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1848 Fri; -1.64% Y/Y

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Overreacting to Lower Than Expected Weekly Jobless Data

US TSYS
  • Treasuries reversed early gains/gapped lower after weekly jobless claims came out lower than anticipated, continuing claims mildly higher -- tempered by down-revision of prior.
  • A surprisingly large hawkish reaction to weekly jobless claims data that show little sign of an improvement in underlying terms, but do at least rule out a very latest deterioration for the labor market. Initial jobless claims were lower than expected in the week to Aug 3, at a seasonally adjusted 233k (cons 240k) as they retreated from a slightly upward revised 250k (initial 249k).
  • Treasury futures remain near lows after Wholesale Trade Sales comes out lower than expected, Inventories in-line. Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures trade -8 at 112-20.5, vs. 112-16.5 low -- through technical support at 112-21 (Low Aug 2). Next support level well below at 111-30 (20D EMA). 10Y yield back over 4.0% to 4.0108% high. Eye on technical support at 112-21 Low Aug 2.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end off early morning levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -40.5bp (-44.8bp), Nov'24 cumulative -71.5bp (-77.6bp), Dec'24 -103.2bp (-109.3bp).
  • Look ahead: No scheduled data, Fed speak or Tsy supply Friday. Next week sees PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Home sales data and UofM inflation expectations.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.