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Pantheon Still See Potential For Rate Cuts in 2023

MEXICO
  • Pantheon sees the disinflation process remaining broad-based, which would allow Banxico to start cutting rates in Q4, both in November and December meetings. However, a still-hawkish tone from policymakers has increased the likelihood of the easing cycle to start only in December or early 2024.
  • They added that the disinflation story in Mexico continues, despite a resilient labour market and solid wage growth. Lower input prices, weakening growth momentum in key economic sectors and lagged effect of elevated real interest rates are helping to push down inflation.
  • Going forward, they expect headline inflation to edge a bit lower over the next few months, before ending the year at about 4.5%, due to unfavourable base effects. For comparison, the latest CitiBanamex survey marginally increased their 2023 year-end inflation forecast to 4.7%. Pantheon sees core inflation potentially ending this year at 5%.
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