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Payrolls Primary Dealer Survey Skewed To Modest Hawkish Surprise

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Looking at survey entries from analysts at primary dealers, the median payrolls figure is seen at 202.5k, very close to the 200k in the broader Bloomberg survey (some primary dealer entries missing).
  • However, dig further into their survey entries and there is a slight skew towards a lower than expected unemployment rate and higher than expected rate of AHE growth (chart below).
  • See more in MNI's Payrolls Preview, found here.


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  • Looking at survey entries from analysts at primary dealers, the median payrolls figure is seen at 202.5k, very close to the 200k in the broader Bloomberg survey (some primary dealer entries missing).
  • However, dig further into their survey entries and there is a slight skew towards a lower than expected unemployment rate and higher than expected rate of AHE growth (chart below).
  • See more in MNI's Payrolls Preview, found here.