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Payrolls Takeaway: A Nuanced Report Highlighted By Stronger Wages But Cooling Hours

US DATA
  • Payrolls growth saw a relatively small miss but was combined with further downward revisions, although the private sector fared better in this latest report after months of underperforming. Both total and private payrolls are only back to or still above the 2019 average, so moderating but still growing strongly on a historical basis.
  • AHE provided the clear hawkish angle to the report with a beat at 0.42% M/M and net upward revisions, with momentum moving in the wrong direction for the Fed at near 5% annualized after its recent moderation.
  • It was however offset by average hours worked surprising lower, dropping back a tenth to the very bottom of the 34.3-34.6 pre-pandemic range seen through 2011-19, a way of cutting costs with an unwillingness to let workers go with skill shortages still an issue.
  • The separate household employment survey was generally hawkish with the unemployment rate pushing lower - as a notable share of analysts had called for – and the underemployment falling back, boosted by a partial reversal of a sharp increase in those working part-time for economic reason.
  • There is some nuance to the participation rates though. Prime-age participation has struggled to surpass its recent push to highs since 2002 and actually edged lower this month. However, 55+ participation increased 0.3pps on the month in what could be nascent signs of early retirees being tempted back to the labor force but still close to post-pandemic lows and some 1.7pps below pre-pandemic levels.
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