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PCE Focus Ahead Next Fed Policy Blackout

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are looking mildly weaker for the most part - holding to a narrow overnight range in the lead-up to this morning's PCE Deflator release at 0830ET, as well as Personal Income and Spending. MNI's Chicago PMI follows later this morning at 0945ET.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers is limited to Atlanta Fed Bostic giving a commencement speech later this evening at 1815ET. However, expect some additional speakers to pop up ahead of the Fed entering the Blackout period at midnight. The self imposed policy blackout runs through June 13, the day after the next FOMC policy announcement.
  • Cash yields are currently running a little higher: 2s +.0187 at 4.9435%, 10s +.008 at 4.5540%, 30s +.0019 at 4.6814%, while curves continue to recede from midweek steeps: 2s10s -1.070 at -39.362, 5s30s -1.144 at 9.918.
  • Meanwhile, Sep'24 Treasury futures officially take lead quarterly position, Jun'24 won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on June 18, and June 28 for 2s and 5s.
  • Treasury futures remain vulnerable to a bearish theme after Wednesday's reversal extension from the May 16 high. The Sep'24 10Y contract has pierced 108-02+, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 25 - May 16 climb.
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