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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
ECB peak hike pricing saw one of its biggest daily jumps in recent months Tuesday, with odds of a 25bp raise this Thursday (MNI Markets Team Preview here) now just-better-than-even. BoE peak pricing recovered an earlier decline post-labour market data.
- ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +3.3bp to 3.97% (22bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). Despite limited obvious catalysts in today's session, shifts in implied probabilities suggested hedging bets of a hold. As the latest terminal rate (the highest of September so far) would imply, markets are centring on the likelihood that the ECB has one more hike left to deliver in this cycle, though that may not be this week (52% prob, vs 40% at Monday's close). 19bp is priced through the October meeting.
- BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +0.4bp to 5.64% (39bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024). There's 19bp (76% prob of a 25bp hike) priced for September's meeting with 31bp through the next 2 meetings cumulatively. UK GDP data will be eyed Wednesday though CPI next week will be more decisive.
Pricing for the next ECB meeting in 12.8 18.9
Pricing for the next BoE meeting in 19 31.4
(Aug 30)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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