Peripherals Continue To Outperform Bunds

Core/semi-core EGBs remain toward the bottom of today's range, with an early afternoon uptick unable to garner any real momentum as 10-year Treasury yields push toward multi-month highs.

• Bunds are -14 ticks at 131.69, with key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low.
• 10-year Periphery spreads to Bunds remain tighter on the day even with European equities 0.4% lower today.
• Moody's outlook change for Spain on Friday (from Stable to Positive) did not provide a meaningful tailwind to SPGBs this morning, but supports the theme of positive fundamentals aiding peripheral tightening over the last ~6-months.
• ECB cut pricing has been largely stable through the day, with 85bps of cuts priced through the remainder of '24.
• The overnight BoJ decision will likely be the main risk event heading into tomorrow morning,
• There are also syndications from the EU and Italy (a mandate for a new 10-year BTPei was announced today), while the data calendar is headlined by the Germany ZEW survey.