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PERU: Goldman Sachs Expecting Conservative 25BP BCRP Cut

PERU
  • Given the still elevated level of policy restraint, Goldman Sachs viewed the July decision to hold as consistent with a cautious wait-and-see approach in search for a better entry point to resume cutting, but not necessarily as implying a permanent floor for the policy rate. 
  • GS believe that recent data are broadly supportive of further normalization of the policy stance through a conservative 25bp cut.
  • Underpinning this view, GS note the inflation backdrop remains benign with headline inflation recording a moderate 0.24% reading in July, significantly below consensus, and with limited price pressures across all categories. 
  • Headline, core ex-food & energy, and services inflation softened vis-à-vis their prints a year ago, with all three measures resuming the downward trajectories on which they were previously set on an annual basis. 
  • GS believe this may alleviate some of the MPC’s concerns about the temporary stickiness of core and services inflation, owing to one-off updating of utilities tariffs. Additionally, inflation expectations remained stable within the target band.
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