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PERU: September CPI Inflation Expected To Remain Close To 2% Target This Week

PERU
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  • CPI inflation data for September will be released tomorrow, with the headline rate expected to edge up to 2.09% y/y, according to the latest Bloomberg survey, following a 2.03% increase in August.
  • Earlier this month, BCRP Governor Velarde said that he expected headline inflation to be around 2.00-2.05% y/y in September and that he is confident it will remain within the 1-3% target range this year. He sees it ending the year at 2.3%, marginally above the previous 2.2% forecast. Core inflation will ease to 2.5% by year-end, he said, down from 2.78% y/y currently.
  • USDPEN fell 1.24% last week, closing at 3.7125, its lowest level since the end of July. Analysts note that PEN has been steadier this quarter, helped by the central bank, with BBVA saying that the latest developments in commodities – oil testing the lows since 2022, while copper has rebounded – benefitting PEN. They note that the 3.70/3.66 supports for USDPEN have resisted for more than a year, while the topside channel is narrowing toward 3.84.
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  • CPI inflation data for September will be released tomorrow, with the headline rate expected to edge up to 2.09% y/y, according to the latest Bloomberg survey, following a 2.03% increase in August.
  • Earlier this month, BCRP Governor Velarde said that he expected headline inflation to be around 2.00-2.05% y/y in September and that he is confident it will remain within the 1-3% target range this year. He sees it ending the year at 2.3%, marginally above the previous 2.2% forecast. Core inflation will ease to 2.5% by year-end, he said, down from 2.78% y/y currently.
  • USDPEN fell 1.24% last week, closing at 3.7125, its lowest level since the end of July. Analysts note that PEN has been steadier this quarter, helped by the central bank, with BBVA saying that the latest developments in commodities – oil testing the lows since 2022, while copper has rebounded – benefitting PEN. They note that the 3.70/3.66 supports for USDPEN have resisted for more than a year, while the topside channel is narrowing toward 3.84.