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Peso Recovers, Fiscal Pressures Set To Increase

MEXICO
  • The peso made a solid recovery late Wednesday and stands modestly in the green today, buoyed by a more stable global risk environment. Having initially extended above the 50-day EMA yesterday, USDMXN reached a high of 17.3860 where it encountered solid resistance at the 200-Day SMA.
    • We note that overall technical conditions still point to a bearish outlook. Nonetheless, risks to the local currency do look to be building, with one analyst noting the mounting domestic political risks, including the government’s pension reform plan and mounting fiscal pressures.
  • On pension reform, AMLO said yesterday that he would send a bill to lawmakers that would increase government contributions so that employees could retire without taking a cut to their income. He said that the government would gradually increase contributions to pension funds.
  • For the day ahead, there are no domestic economic releases in the calendar. Later today, former officials and executives are due to speak at a Sheinbaum campaign event on trade and foreign investment at 1430GMT(0930ET). Separately, former Banxico deputy governor Everardo Elizondo speaks at an event on the 2024 outlook at 1700GMT.
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