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NORWAY: Petroluem-related Manufacturing IP Shows Signs Of Rolling Over

NORWAY

There may be early signs that the offshore sector-related boom in manufacturing industrial production is beginning to rollover. Analysts expects the tailwind from the offshore sector to overall GDP to fade a little from next year, which may pressure supplier industries. Meanwhile, production for manufacturing firms excluding petroleum related industries remains subdued.

  • Overall manufacturing IP fell 1.6% M/M and rose 0.3% Y/Y in October. On a 3m/3m basis, production fell 0.6% (vs a 2.6% rise in September).
  • Petroleum-related manufacturing and support industries saw a 1.1% fall in production, with petroleum-related manufacturing seeing a 1.8% decline. Meanwhile, manufacturing ex-petroleum related industries fell 1.0%.
  • The dip in underlying industrial production is consistent with Statistics Norway's Q3 Business Confidence survey, which fell to 1.5 from 3.5.
  • Headline IP rose 9.8% M/M, and 2.1% prior, but fell 7.3% on a 3m/3m basis. Crude oil (-2.5% 3m/3m) and natural gas production (-9.2% 3m/3m) dragged, largely due to maintenance-related disruption in September.

 

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There may be early signs that the offshore sector-related boom in manufacturing industrial production is beginning to rollover. Analysts expects the tailwind from the offshore sector to overall GDP to fade a little from next year, which may pressure supplier industries. Meanwhile, production for manufacturing firms excluding petroleum related industries remains subdued.

  • Overall manufacturing IP fell 1.6% M/M and rose 0.3% Y/Y in October. On a 3m/3m basis, production fell 0.6% (vs a 2.6% rise in September).
  • Petroleum-related manufacturing and support industries saw a 1.1% fall in production, with petroleum-related manufacturing seeing a 1.8% decline. Meanwhile, manufacturing ex-petroleum related industries fell 1.0%.
  • The dip in underlying industrial production is consistent with Statistics Norway's Q3 Business Confidence survey, which fell to 1.5 from 3.5.
  • Headline IP rose 9.8% M/M, and 2.1% prior, but fell 7.3% on a 3m/3m basis. Crude oil (-2.5% 3m/3m) and natural gas production (-9.2% 3m/3m) dragged, largely due to maintenance-related disruption in September.