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Pill one of three marginal MPC members to watch

BOE
  • So just summing up Huw Pill's views. He would have been a "metter" in August - which would have put him alongside Ramsden, Saunders, Bailey and Broadbent, and confirms that there is a majority on the MPC who think that the previous guidance conditions had been "met". Saunders and Ramsden both hawkishly dissented in September so Pill, Broadbent and Bailey are now seen as the marginal MPC members to watch - all three are likely to need to vote for any policy tightening for the MPC as a whole to vote in favour. That's pretty much where the market had thought he was anyway.
  • He seems more concerned about inflation staying higher for longer than the August MPR forecasts.
  • He also refers to activity still below pre-Covid levels - this suggests when GDP moves above here a barrier to tighter policy will have been removed.
  • On the impact of the end of the furlough scheme he was fairly non-committal but he does say that in August "my focus would have been on the shorter-term supply concept, which is more relevant for inflation."
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