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PLN: Zloty Looks Through Final Inflation Data, Trades Tad Higher

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EUR/PLN has edged lower and last deals at 4.2912, down 25 pips on the session, with little in the way of notable market reaction to the release of final Polish CPI data. Bears look for losses towards the key 4.25 area, which hosts Sep 25 low of 4.2520 and Jul 15 low of 4.2471. Conversely, bulls keep an eye on Aug 9 high of 4.3309.

  • Data from Statistics Poland confirmed that inflation accelerated to +4.9% Y/Y in September, while local desks estimate that core inflation quickened to +4.3-4.4% Y/Y (official data will be out tomorrow). Base effects boosted the prices of pharmaceuticals, while summer energy price hikes continued to filter through into overall inflation. Against this backdrop, the NBP is expected to stand pat on rates through the remainder of this year, before kicking off a debate on rate cuts, possibly as soon as in March 2025.
  • POLGB yields are 5.4-12.3bp lower, curve runs a tad flatter, with 8s outperforming. Meanwhile, Poland is launching a sale of 7-year and 15-year EUR-denominated bonds, having mandated Commerzbank, ING, JPMorgan and SocGen as bookrunners, with Bloomberg reporting that the deal may price today.
  • The WIG20 Index is under pressure, last sits 0.4% below previous close.
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EUR/PLN has edged lower and last deals at 4.2912, down 25 pips on the session, with little in the way of notable market reaction to the release of final Polish CPI data. Bears look for losses towards the key 4.25 area, which hosts Sep 25 low of 4.2520 and Jul 15 low of 4.2471. Conversely, bulls keep an eye on Aug 9 high of 4.3309.

  • Data from Statistics Poland confirmed that inflation accelerated to +4.9% Y/Y in September, while local desks estimate that core inflation quickened to +4.3-4.4% Y/Y (official data will be out tomorrow). Base effects boosted the prices of pharmaceuticals, while summer energy price hikes continued to filter through into overall inflation. Against this backdrop, the NBP is expected to stand pat on rates through the remainder of this year, before kicking off a debate on rate cuts, possibly as soon as in March 2025.
  • POLGB yields are 5.4-12.3bp lower, curve runs a tad flatter, with 8s outperforming. Meanwhile, Poland is launching a sale of 7-year and 15-year EUR-denominated bonds, having mandated Commerzbank, ING, JPMorgan and SocGen as bookrunners, with Bloomberg reporting that the deal may price today.
  • The WIG20 Index is under pressure, last sits 0.4% below previous close.