PLN: Zloty Outperforms EMEA Peers, NBP Speak Under Microscope

EUR/PLN trades -67 pips at 4.2768 and bearish focus turns to the 4.25 area and May 28 low of 4.2471. Conversely, bulls set their sights on Jul 2 high of 4.3321. The dust settles after last week's NBP rate decision, participants monitor fresh NBP speak.

• MPC's Wnorowski told PAP news agency that the central bank could discuss cutting rates in 2H2025 and sees scope for 75bp or more worth of monetary easing next year. He called the consensus interpretation of Governor Glapinski's remarks last week as indicating that there would be no rate cuts until 2026 as a "misunderstanding" and suggested that the Governor was merely explaining the parameters of the forecasting model. Still, Deputy Governor Marta Kightley (not an MPC member) told the central bank's TV channel that the new projection leaves no room for interest-rate cuts next year. Separately, MPC's Ludwik Kotecki told BIZNES 24 TV that the central bank could consider a "slight adjustment" to interest rates in Q1 or Q2 next year, "especially if the November and March projections confirm a sustained decline in inflation to the target in 2026." For the details of last week's monetary policy decision and Governor Glapinski's presser, see our comprehensive review.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Warsaw on his way to the NATO summit in Washington DC. This comes after a heavy Russian bombardment of the Ukrainian capital, which prompted Poland to scramble its fighter jets to ensure the security of its airspace. Polish Armed Forces Operational Command said that the activity of the Russian Air Force has not been that intensive since June 21/22.
• POLGB yields are a tad higher across the curve, last sit 1.9-2.4bp above neutral levels. The WIG20 Index is marginally firmer.