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PLN: Zloty Slips After Release Of Flash CPI Data

PLN

The release of below-forecast Polish CPI data has been a tailwind for EUR/PLN, facilitating the pair's swing from an intraday loss to a gain. The rate last deals +31 pips at 4.2954 and bulls look for a move through 4.30 and Jul 25 high of 4.3044. On the downside, a dip through Jul 26 low of 4.2671 would allow bears to target the 4.25 area.

  • The acceleration in headline CPI beyond the NBP's tolerance band (+/- 1pp around the +2.5% Y/Y target) was widely expected due to the partial reduction of energy price shields, but inflation fell short of the +4.4% consensus forecast.
  • NBP's Wnorowski said that a rate-cut debate in Poland is unlikely this year, but conditions may be ripe to discuss loosening monetary policy in 2Q2025.
  • POLGB curve has bulls flattened, with 5s outperforming at the margin. Yields and Polish FRAs ticked lower around the release of the expectation-missing CPI data.
  • The WIG20 Index has added 1.4% but remains within this week's range.
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