PLN: Zloty Under Pressure, EUR/PLN Approaches 4.32

EUR/PLN advances and the zloty lags behind all its EMEA peers, with EUR/USD losing altitude amid broader greenback outperformance. There has been little in the way of market-moving headlines coming out of Poland this morning, but some sell-side desks have recently been questioning growth forecasts for this year, with the NBP's hawkish attitude and elevated borrowing costs listed among the key headwinds.

• NBP Management Board (not to confuse with the MPC) member Artur Sobon said that rate cuts are unlikely in 1H2025 and the central bank still expects inflation to return sustainably to the target only in 2026.
• EUR/PLN last deals at 4.3194, 172 pips better off on the day. On the topside, the focus falls on the 200-DMA (4.3225), followed by Jul 2 high of 4.3321. Meanwhile, bears take aim at 4.2671, the Jul 26 low.
• POLGB yields have pulled back from session highs but are still 0.4-3.5bp above neutral levels (save for 2s which sit 0.2bp below unchanged levels). Curve runs a tad steeper.
• The WIG20 Index remains under pressure, sliding by 1.6% this morning. Still, a new cyclical low printed yesterday has remained intact for now.