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POLAND: 2024, 2025 Inflation Forecasts Revised Higher by NBP

POLAND

Highlights from the NBP's policy statement:

  • There is a 50-percent probability that the annual price growth will be in the range of 3.1-4.3% in 2024 (against 2.8-4.3% in the March 2024 projection), 3.9-6.6% in 2025 (compared to 2.2-5.0%) and 1.3-4.1% in 2026 (compared to 1.5-4.3%). 
  • Annual GDP growth will be with a 50-percent probability in the range of 2.3-3.7% in 2024 (against 2.7-4.3% in the March 2024 projection), 2.8-4.8% in 2025 (compared to 3.2-5.3%) and 1.9-4.3% in 2026 (compared to 2.0-4.5%).
  • Incoming data indicate that despite the observed economic recovery, demand and cost pressures in the Polish economy remain relatively low […]  However, demand pressure in the domestic economy is stimulated by a marked wage growth.
  • In the coming quarters, the consumer price growth is likely to increase and will be running above the NBP inflation target, which will be driven by the raised energy prices.
  • The Council judges that the current level of the NBP interest rates is conducive to meeting the NBP inflation target in the medium term.
  • Considering the Statistics Poland data, it can be estimated that inflation net of food and energy prices in June was lower than in the previous month.

See the full release here.

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Highlights from the NBP's policy statement:

  • There is a 50-percent probability that the annual price growth will be in the range of 3.1-4.3% in 2024 (against 2.8-4.3% in the March 2024 projection), 3.9-6.6% in 2025 (compared to 2.2-5.0%) and 1.3-4.1% in 2026 (compared to 1.5-4.3%). 
  • Annual GDP growth will be with a 50-percent probability in the range of 2.3-3.7% in 2024 (against 2.7-4.3% in the March 2024 projection), 2.8-4.8% in 2025 (compared to 3.2-5.3%) and 1.9-4.3% in 2026 (compared to 2.0-4.5%).
  • Incoming data indicate that despite the observed economic recovery, demand and cost pressures in the Polish economy remain relatively low […]  However, demand pressure in the domestic economy is stimulated by a marked wage growth.
  • In the coming quarters, the consumer price growth is likely to increase and will be running above the NBP inflation target, which will be driven by the raised energy prices.
  • The Council judges that the current level of the NBP interest rates is conducive to meeting the NBP inflation target in the medium term.
  • Considering the Statistics Poland data, it can be estimated that inflation net of food and energy prices in June was lower than in the previous month.

See the full release here.