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POLAND: MPC's Iwona Duda Says Debate On Rate Cuts May Be Possible In 2H2025

POLAND
  • MPC's Iwona Duda joined several of her colleagues in predicting that the discussion on rate cuts could start in 2H2024. Duda said that inflation will likely accelerate to over +6% Y/Y next year, which will complicate any such discussions, as the rate-setting panel needs certainty that the decline of inflation is sustainable. She added that the process of moving away from these levels will start from 3Q2025 at the earliest. The official pointed to wage growth as a major source of concern for the MPC, noting that there are proposals of larger public-sector wage hikes than assumed in the current inflation forecast. As a reminder, during his press conference last month Governor Adam Glapinski guided that rate cuts are unlikely until 2026 (see caveats here and here).
  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski defended his plans to raise the excise tax on tobacco products by 25% and a flagship reform of local government finances. He also noted that the budget allocation for national defence next year will be "significantly larger" than in 2024, adding that "Poland will not save on defence." Domanski also pledged that the government will take measures to ensure that consumers are not excessively affected by energy price hikes.
  • Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski refused to confirm whether he will be the ruling Civic Coalition's presidential candidate next year, noiting that there will be more clarity on the matter in the autumn.
  • The second batch of Polish economic activity data for the month of June will cross the wires at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. The key figures will include:
    • retail sales (BBG est. +6.0% Y/Y)
    • construction output (BBG est. -5.1% Y/Y)
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