POLAND: Retail Sales, Construction Output Undershoot Expectations In August

Statistics Poland released the second batch of economic activity data for August, with both retail sales and construction output missing expectations.

• ING expect consumption growth in 2H2024 to be lower than in 1H2024 due to higher inflation, slower growth in nominal wages and savings. They note that there are no signs of a rebound in projects co-financed by the EU, while post-flood reconstruction will only have local impact.
• In mBank's view, the second portion of August data was underwhelming. Construction output fell notably , which does not bode well for the investment outlook. They expect recovery on that front to occur only at the turn of the year. They note that the momentum in retail sales is waning amid weakening impact of real wage growth. On the other hand, it seems that households have largely rebuilt their savings, which leaves them some room to boost spending in the future.
• Pekao point to a weak package of data from the Polish economy. They write that "we have already got used to the free fall in construction output," but retail sales were "disappointing." They reiterate that there is "no consumption boom in Poland."
• The Polish Economic Institute write that real retail sales growth surprised to the downside on the back of weak auto sales, while durable goods sales remained disappointing. Still, they note that retail sales are growing fast relative to other EU member states. Construction output was weak across all main categories and survey data show little scope for improvement in the coming months.