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Polish Central Bank Releases Inflation Projection

NBP

The National Bank of Poland releases its November Inflation Report, which informed the on-hold rate decision delivered earlier this week.

  • "Annual consumer price growth in Poland has continued to decline significantly in recent months (to 8.2% in September and, according to the Statistics Poland flash estimate, 6.5% in October compared to 11.5% in June and a peak of 18.4% in February 2023). The biggest driver of the fall in CPI inflation from June to September 2023 was the lower annual growth in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages as well as nonfood product."
  • "Under the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates (including the reference rate at 5.75%), CPI inflation will return to the band of deviations from the NBP inflation target defined as 2.5% +/-1 p.p. at the end of the projection horizon. The current period of inflation running at the highest level for many years increases its persistence – although over the projection horizon a decline in growth in unit labour costs is expected, in the coming quarters inflation will still run at an elevated level."
  • Click here to see the full document.

Fig. 1: NBP Inflation Report - CPI Projection

Source: NBP

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